Predicting the success of independence movements can be challenging, as it depends on a multitude of factors including political, social, economic, and historical contexts. However, based on ongoing trends and existing movements, here are ten independence movements that may have the potential for success in the next two decades:
Scotland: The Scottish independence movement, seeking to separate from the United Kingdom, has gained momentum in recent years. While a referendum in 2014 narrowly favoured remaining in the UK, there are ongoing calls for another referendum, especially in light of Brexit, which has renewed discussions about Scotland’s future within the UK.
Catalonia: The Catalan independence movement in Spain has seen significant support, with Catalonia holding a controversial independence referendum in 2017. Despite facing repression from the Spanish government and legal challenges, Catalan separatists continue to push for independence, and the issue remains unresolved.
Kurdistan: The Kurdish people, spread across Iraq, Türkiye, Iran, and Syria, have long aspired for an independent state of Kurdistan. While the prospects for Kurdish independence remain uncertain due to geopolitical complexities and opposition from neighbouring states, Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and developments in the region may shape future possibilities.
West Papua: The indigenous people of West Papua, a region in Indonesia, have been engaged in a protracted struggle for independence from Indonesian rule. The movement has faced significant challenges, including human rights abuses and repression, but international awareness and support for West Papuan self-determination continue to grow.
Taiwan: Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, has maintained de facto independence from mainland China since 1949. While China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification, Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and strong national identity bolster its prospects for maintaining independence.
Baluchistan: The Baloch nationalist movement in Pakistan, advocating for greater autonomy or independence for the resource-rich province of Baluchistan, has persisted for decades. Baloch separatists cite economic marginalization, human rights abuses, and resource exploitation as grievances fuelling their demand for self-determination.
Tibet: Tibetans have long sought independence from Chinese rule, with the Tibetan government-in-exile led by the Dalai Lama advocating for autonomy and cultural preservation. Despite facing repression and demographic changes imposed by the Chinese government, the Tibetan cause continues to garner international support and attention.
Chechnya: The Chechen Republic in Russia’s North Caucasus has experienced two devastating wars for independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union. While the Chechen independence movement has been largely suppressed by the Russian government, simmering grievances and aspirations for self-rule persist.
South Yemen: Calls for the restoration of an independent South Yemen have resurfaced amid political instability and conflict in Yemen. South Yemen was a separate state until 1990 when it unified with North Yemen, but grievances over marginalization and political representation have fuelled demands for secession.
Tamil Eelam: The Tamil people of Sri Lanka have sought an independent state called Tamil Eelam in the northern and eastern regions of the country, where they constitute a significant minority. While the armed conflict between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil militants ended in 2009, Tamil grievances persist, and aspirations for self-determination remain unresolved.
It’s important to note that the success of these independence movements depends on a range of factors, including international support, internal cohesion, geopolitical dynamics, and the responses of central governments. Some movements may achieve independence, while others may face continued repression or integration within existing states.