This text outlines the stages of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, brokered through indirect negotiations involving key stakeholders like the United States and Qatar. Here’s a breakdown of its main points:
First Stage (6 Weeks)
- Ceasefire: A “full and complete” ceasefire lasting six weeks is agreed upon.
- Hostage and Prisoner Exchange:
- Hostages held by Hamas, including women, the elderly, and the sick, would be released gradually in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli custody.
- Initially, 33 hostages are expected to be freed.
- Israeli Troop Withdrawal: Israeli troops would withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza.
- Displaced Gazans Return: Palestinians displaced by the conflict would be allowed to return to their homes.
- Humanitarian Aid Surge: Hundreds of trucks carrying aid would be allowed into Gaza daily to address the severe humanitarian crisis.
- Further Negotiations: Talks on the next stages would start on the 16th day of the ceasefire, with the ceasefire continuing as long as negotiations progress.
Second Stage
- Permanent End to War: This stage aims to conclude hostilities permanently.
- Hostage and Prisoner Release: Remaining hostages, including men, would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. However, prisoners convicted of murder are not expected to be released into the West Bank.
- Israeli Withdrawal: Israeli troops would fully withdraw from Gaza.
Third Stage
- Gaza Reconstruction: A long-term effort to rebuild Gaza begins, which could take years.
- Remaining Hostages: Any remaining hostages or their bodies would be returned.
Challenges and Uncertainties
- Mistrust Between Parties: Israel and Hamas fundamentally distrust each other, complicating the agreement’s implementation.
- Fragility of Ceasefire: Historical ceasefires have often broken down, and even minor incidents could threaten this agreement.
- Hostage and Prisoner Issues:
- The exact status and location of some hostages remain unclear.
- Disputes over specific prisoners, such as those involved in the October 7 attacks, persist.
- Buffer Zone: It’s unclear if and when Israel will withdraw fully from its buffer zone in Gaza.
Context of the Conflict
The conflict intensified following a Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, resulting in over 1,200 Israeli deaths and more than 250 hostages taken to Gaza. In response, Israel launched a large-scale offensive, causing significant devastation and a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with tens of thousands of civilian casualties.
This ceasefire is a step toward de-escalation, but its success depends on the cooperation of both sides and the resolution of lingering disputes.