The German election: What to expect ?
Germany is set to hold a snap national election on February 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition government. The election comes at a time of shifting political dynamics in the country, as recent polling shows significant changes in voter preferences.
The latest aggregate polling results indicate that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are leading with a 9-point advantage over the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD has seen a notable rise, gaining 3.9 points since June 2024, while the current ruling party, the Social Democrats (SPD), have suffered a sharp decline, losing 12.3 points since the last federal election and now sitting in third place.
Germany’s political landscape has been shifting, with both the SPD and the CDU/CSU—two centrist, “big-tent” parties—losing support in recent years. Smaller parties, including the Greens and the AfD, have gained ground. This has made the upcoming election more unpredictable, as voters appear increasingly drawn to alternatives to the traditional major parties.
In the race for chancellor, candidates from the SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and AfD are all vying for leadership. Additionally, several smaller parties are participating, including the pro-market Free Democrats (FDP), the far-left Linke, and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), all of whom face the risk of falling short of the crucial 5% threshold needed to secure parliamentary seats.
With the political landscape in flux, the February 23 election will be a pivotal moment for Germany, determining not only the future of its leadership but also the direction of its political discourse in the coming years.