The conflict in Sudan, particularly the recent civil war that began in April 2023, has been a complex and ongoing struggle driven by power disputes, historical grievances, and external influences. Here’s a breakdown of key factors fuelling this conflict and why it remains unresolved:
Power Struggles within Military Leadership
- Background: The conflict escalated due to a rivalry between two main factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti). The power struggle emerged from years of distrust and competition, particularly after Sudan’s transitional government was overthrown in 2021, resulting in both leaders effectively controlling different parts of the country.
- Key Issue: The struggle for dominance between the SAF and RSF, each with its own resources and influence, has prevented any unified command, making a stable power-sharing agreement difficult to achieve.
Legacy of Past Conflicts
- Darfur Conflict: The RSF originated from the Janjaweed militias involved in the Darfur conflict in the early 2000s, notorious for violence and human rights abuses. This legacy of violence and the militia’s loose command structure make integrating it into a national army challenging.
- Civil War in South Sudan: Sudan’s history of conflict also includes the long civil war that ultimately led to South Sudan’s independence in 2011. The instability and power void left by this separation affected governance in Sudan and contributed to the country’s ongoing conflicts.
Economic Hardship and Resource Competition
- Economic Instability: Sudan has faced severe economic issues, worsened by the loss of oil revenue after South Sudan’s independence. High inflation, unemployment, and food insecurity have created widespread poverty and frustration among the population.
- Control of Resources: Both the SAF and RSF have vied for control of Sudan’s resources, including gold mines and other critical industries. For example, the RSF reportedly controls many of the gold mines, which fund its operations, while the SAF holds control over other sectors, leading to competition for economic dominance.
Ethnic and Regional Divisions
- Complex Ethnic Composition: Sudan is home to many ethnic groups, and some militias recruit based on ethnic affiliations, exacerbating divides. These ethnic and regional dynamics have fuelled loyalty to specific factions, making national unity difficult.
- Regional Imbalances: Darfur, Kordofan, and other regions have long suffered from political and economic marginalization by the central government in Khartoum, leading to resentment and cycles of rebellion and crackdown.
Lack of a Unified Civilian Government
- Transitional Government Challenges: After the ouster of former dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan attempted a transition to democracy with a joint civilian-military government. However, the 2021 military coup disrupted these efforts, leaving the country without a stable civilian-led administration.
- Calls for Civilian Rule: Many Sudanese want a civilian government, but the competing interests of the military factions and weak civilian institutions have hindered this aspiration. Peace talks often break down over disagreements on power-sharing and the role of the military in governance.
Foreign Influence and Regional Interests
- External Support: Neighbouring countries, as well as regional powers like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, have strategic interests in Sudan’s stability and alignment. These countries often provide support to different factions, complicating peace efforts.
- Geopolitical Interests: Sudan’s strategic location along the Red Sea and its natural resources make it a point of interest for various powers. Foreign actors with competing interests have therefore sometimes fuelled divisions within Sudan, backing different leaders to protect their own regional influence.
Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement
- Civilian Impact: Millions of people have been displaced by the fighting, with widespread reports of atrocities against civilians. The humanitarian crisis has put additional strain on Sudan’s already fragile infrastructure, further weakening efforts to establish stability.
- Refugee Crisis: The conflict has spilled over into neigh boring countries, as refugees from Sudan seek safety. This cross-border displacement has increased regional tensions and pressures, creating further instability.