Labour gains both seats
The most important fact about these results in Wellingborough and Kingswood is that they feel almost unsurprising, despite the scale of Labour’s wins.
Why? Because it extends the trend of Labour marching forward and Conservative gloom.
The results underline the current likelihood, if the mood of the electorate does not shift, of Labour winning the general election.
But Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is going out of his way to avoid any whiff of complacency.
Reform UK gains votes
The added political spice that garnishes the Tory gloom today is the performance of Reform UK.
Ben Habib the reform candidate, celebrated this as a victory for the party. It highlights a move from conservative voters to the new party.
Ben Habib finished third behind the Labour and the Conservative candidates, but it represents a victory in Reform’s battle for influence, as they inflicted two very painful statistical wounds on Rishi Sunak’s party.
Reform got a 13% share of the vote at this by-election, in line with some national opinion polls that some thought might be flattering the party.
And in Kingswood, near Bristol, they got a share of the vote greater than the gap between the victorious Labour candidate and the Tory runner-up.
What is next for the conservatives ?
It is likely the conservatives will have to change policy going into the next election, they may move further to the right in order to try and reclaim some of the voters who switched to Reform. Despite this, there is a clear disaffection with the party, with many moving to Labour. If Reform continue with this support they will split the conservative vote in many seats making it easier for Labour to win. This will be very unpopular with right-wing conservatives who are already asking for the party to change their direction on key issues like immigration.
Check out how parliament has changed since the previous election in 2019