If you studied American politics at A-level there is no doubt that you are aware of the U.S primary process. This is the term given to the process which explains how the two major parties pick their electoral candidates for the next presidential election (November 2024).
The process is complex, vague and unclear and is not a formal process listed in the constitution. It is essentially an extraconstitutional process that has been consistently evolving over time.
Who is running in the primaries ?
The primary process usually refers to the two main parties (Democrats and Republicans).
For the Democrats, Joe Biden is running for re-election which makes him the incumbent candidate. Incumbent candidates don’t usually face serious opposition however Democrat House Representative Dean Phillips and Author Marianne Williamson are both set to challenge him,
For the Republicans, Donald Trump continues to dominate the polls although he is being challenged by five other candidates. Challengers include former South Carolina Governor. Nikki Haley, Florida Governor. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor. Chris Christie, Entrepeneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
How does the process work ?
- The process varies by state as is usually determined by the party committee within that state
- Some states have open primaries meaning any registered voter can vote in either Democrats or Republican Primaries (this essentially means a Democrat party member could vote against a Republican candidate they dislike)
- Other states have closed primaries meaning only people registered in a particular political party can vote in that party’s primary
When does the process start ?
- The first date of the primary calendar is January 15th
- In Iowa, the Republican party gather at a caucus which is another method of conducting a primary where the parties will hear speeches from a campaign’s supporters and then vote for their preferred candidate
- New Hampshire holds its “first-in-the-nation” primary on January 23, although Democrats are not sanctioning the event. Democrats want their first official primary to take place on February 3 in South Carolina
- Following this period up until November each state will hold a primary or caucus. Some states hold them on the same day, these are particularly important as they carry greater weighting. **This year it is Super Tuesday - March 5th **
Who are they voting for ?
Voters cast ballots for candidates, but they’re really selecting delegates for the party conventions, which take place over the summer.
Delegates can either be apportioned through a winner-take-all system, meaning the top candidate in a state’s primary gets all of that state’s delegates, or they can be apportioned proportionally to the primary election results. Some states have thresholds where every candidate who gets over a certain amount of the vote – say, 20% – may be entitled to delegates.
Democrats these days apportion all of their delegates proportionally.
Republican rules this year generally require that states with primaries and caucuses before March 15 apportion delegates proportionally. States with primaries and caucuses after March 15 may switch to a winner-take-all format.
Delegates should vote on behalf of those that voted them in, however there is no obligation although they may face consequences. Results should become clear at the party conferences although primaries may provide indications before then,
The Republican National Convention runs July 15-18 in Milwaukee.
The Democratic National Convention runs August 19-22 in Chicago.
This process is incredibly complicated, however I hope this provides a basic background to what is happening to select candidates before the next election and that it will help to explain why certain stories dominate the news in the following months