Whilst initially, it may appear that this is geography post. The weather, climate and extreme events are becoming increasingly politicised due to the impact on the international system and the effects it has on interstate relations.
After a four-year absence, a powerful El Nino climate pattern will peak in the first half of this year, bringing extreme weather events that will cause food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, and fuel migration and political instability.
El Nino is a predictable pattern that increases the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, storms, and floods due to higher global temperatures stemming from warmer currents and winds in the Pacific Ocean. The last time a strong El Nino occurred (in 2016), it contributed to making that year the hottest on record. Since then, however, baseline temperatures have increased further owing to climate change. With El Nino peaking in the first half of the year and its effect on global temperatures lagging by a few months, 2024 will likely set a new record.
Countries in the Indo-Pacific, Latin America, and Southern Africa will be hit hardest. South and Southeast Asia, Central America, northern South America, and Australia all risk prolonged dry periods and record high temperatures, increasing the likelihood of unusually severe and widespread drought. In Brazil, dry conditions in parts of the country will exacerbate the risk of fires, accelerating deforestation and threatening sources of fresh water and hydroelectric power generation. Food security will also be affected, threatening the livelihoods of small farmers in rural areas.
The combination of food insecurity, water stress, and natural disasters will put the most pressure on countries with limited adaptation capabilities—many of them already suffering from elevated political and economic fragility. This will threaten lives and livelihoods among the most vulnerable populations in the most vulnerable countries, driving internal migration (in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East) and cross-border refugee flows (in the Americas).
There is no doubt that climate change fosters political instability, as this year is expected to be more extreme than ever, the risk for political instability and the growth of climate-related tension is higher than ever.