If Donald Trump secures a second term in 2024, it could have significant international implications across various areas:
Foreign Policy Realignment: Trump’s “America First” approach could lead to a reduction in U.S. involvement in multilateral organizations and agreements, as seen during his first term with the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal. This stance could strain U.S. alliances, particularly with NATO and traditional allies in Europe and Asia, as Trump has previously questioned the value of these partnerships.
Trade Relations and Economic Tensions: Trump might reassert a more protectionist trade policy, potentially reigniting tensions with China and possibly even Europe. This could involve tariffs or renegotiated trade deals aimed at reducing trade deficits and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., potentially impacting global supply chains and trade norms.
China and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Trump is expected to adopt a hard-line stance against China, focusing on issues like intellectual property, economic influence, and military presence in the South China Sea. While his administration might pursue a stronger Indo-Pacific presence, it could mean less coordination with allies and more direct, unilateral actions that could lead to escalated tensions.
Climate Change and Environmental Policy: Trump has been a sceptic of climate change initiatives and has criticized global climate agreements. A second term could mean reduced U.S. commitment to international climate efforts, potentially weakening global progress and cooperation, especially with countries like the EU, which prioritize climate action.
Middle East Strategy: Trump’s second term might emphasize normalization deals with Israel over a broader peace process, affecting U.S.-Iran relations and stability in the region. His policies could also impact oil market dynamics, potentially shifting U.S. alliances further away from traditional energy partners if the U.S. pursues energy independence or moves away from renewable energy goals. It is likely that Trump will want Netanyahu to slow down the conflict in Gaza before his term. However, this will be incredibly challenging for him to do given the pressure from Israelis and other parties to continue the war. It will be interesting to see how Trump approaches this conflict, his peace programme and the movement of the U.S embassy to Jerusalem caused an exacerbation of tensions in the region and back peddled progress to peace. Any short term attempt to stop the war is likely to have long-term implications.
Russia and Ukraine: There is also uncertainty about how Trump will approach the Russian/Ukraine conflict and European security as a whole. It is clear that both parties are hoping to end the conflict in the near future, but how this looks will obviously differ greatly between the two countries. Whether Ukraine will have to cede territory, will it be allowed to join NATO and the EU and what it means for other vulnerable states like Moldova and Georgia are key questions.
Global Populism and Nationalism: Trump’s leadership style and rhetoric have influenced populist and nationalist movements globally. His re-election might embolden similar movements in other countries, potentially reshaping the global political landscape toward more nationalist, inward-looking policies.
The overall impact would likely depend on the extent to which Trump would reassert policies that prioritize U.S. interests over international cooperation, influencing global stability, trade, and multilateral engagement.