Chatham House, also known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, have released an interesting article looking at how different international events may play out in 2025. These are some overviews from Chatham House of what may happen.
Asia and the Pacific: China braces itself for American tariffs
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will loom over Asia in 2025, as the region’s leaders consider how far he will pursue a renewed trade war with China and what impact his unpredictable administration will have on key flashpoints: the South China Sea, Taiwan and North Korea.
Artificial intelligence: An opportunity for AI to become fairer
In 2025, action on global AI governance will come into sharper focus, as countries balance the urgent need for increased international cooperation while navigating rising geopolitical tensions.
Global economy: Will Trump hit the inflation pump?
The policy choices Donald Trump makes as his second term as US president gets under way are likely to dominate the outlook for the global economy in the next 12 months.
Europe: Can Germany renew its EU leadership?
The German Bundestag elections on February 23 will shape European politics in 2025. Brought forward from September after the coalition government’s collapse, the elections should bring renewed life to German political leadership. Germany’s economy – the EU’s largest – contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024, and the traditional backbone of its economy, the car industry, is struggling. The new government will have to confront these issues and provide new impetus to leadership in the EU and greater support for Ukraine.
Global health: Time to prepare for the next pandemic
The negotiation of the ‘Pandemic Agreement’ – which would be the first global accord to address international cooperation specifically on pandemics – is in overtime and needs to be ready for adoption in May at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.
Defence and security: Scrambling to fill the Trump security hole
Global conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Sudan are intensifying, with the potential for spillovers. At the same time, the resumption of President Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda in 2025 is expected to shrink US global defence commitments, pushing allies to rethink their strategies and bolster their capabilities.
Middle East: Iran, Syria and further instability
Ending conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to dominate the Trump foreign policy agenda in 2025. However, the incoming administration will anchor its regional strategy around the two pillars of Israel’s security and Iranian containment.
UK in the world: Decision time – Europe or America?
With a new Labour government in office, the UK’s foreign policy priority next yearwill be in balancing relations with the US and Europe. More attention will be paid to Britain’s role in European security as the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth year. The Starmer government has already committed £3 billion annually in military support to Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’ as well as to meeting NATO’s annual defence spending target of 2 per of GDP, with a future target of 2.5 per cent to be set out ‘at a future fiscal event’.
Africa: The continent must seize its G20 moment
Africa’s voice will be amplified on the global stage in 2025 as South Africa assumes the presidency and hosts the newly expanded G20 forum in November. The African Union (AU) will elect a new chairperson for its commission in February, and since it became a G20 member in 2023 will also participate in the forum.
Russia and Ukraine: 2025 is make or break for Ukraine
The western policy of keeping Ukraine in the war, rather than helping it win, will bring the country – and by extension the western world – to the brink of defeat by Russia.
Global warming: COP30 in Brazil will be pivotal
Big challenges to effective climate action loom in 2025. The move to a net-zero global economy is not inevitable, and consensus over the Paris Agreement and its primary goal to keep global warming to beneath 2C is weakening.
International Law: Can the courts hold states and their leaders to account?
By issuing an arrest warrant in November for Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, the International Criminal Court now has arrest warrants for two serving heads of state – Vladimir Putin is the other. Attention will turn to which of the 124 member states will enforce the court’s decision and restrict their travel in 2025.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2024-12/world-2025