Why is conflict escalating in Congo?
The decades-long conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, raising fears of a full-scale war between Congo and Rwanda. Such a conflict risks involving neighbouring countries and regional forces, including South Africa, Burundi, Uganda, Tanzania, and Malawi.
In Kinshasa and Goma, Congolese citizens have taken to the streets to protest worsening security in the east, accusing the international community of failing to hold Rwanda accountable for its alleged support of the M23 rebels.
Who Are the M23 Rebels?
The M23, named after a March 23, 2009, peace accord that ended a prior Tutsi-led rebellion, is the latest in a series of insurgent groups led by ethnic Tutsis opposing Congolese forces. The group claims the Congolese government has not honoured the peace agreement by fully integrating Congolese Tutsis into the military and administration. M23 also aims to protect Tutsi interests, particularly against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an ethnic Hutu militia founded by perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
In recent weeks, the rebels have advanced toward Goma, seizing key positions and cutting off major roads to the city. Taking Goma would mark their most significant military victory in over a decade.
What Triggered the Current Revolt?
In 2012 and 2013, M23 briefly captured large areas of eastern Congo, including Goma, before being driven out by Congolese and U.N. forces into Uganda and Rwanda. In March 2022, the group launched renewed offensives, claiming it was defending itself against FDLR attacks, which it alleged were carried out in coordination with the Congolese army—an accusation the army denies.
Rwanda’s Involvement
Congo, along with U.N. officials and Western powers such as the U.S. and Belgium, has accused Rwanda of supporting M23 with weapons and troops, a claim Rwanda denies. Rwanda argues its actions are defensive, citing threats from Congo, including alleged cooperation with the FDLR and statements by Congolese officials suggesting plans to invade Rwanda.
Rwanda and Uganda have a history of intervening militarily in Congo, having invaded in 1996 and 1998 to counter local militias. The U.S. has called on Rwanda to withdraw its forces from Congo and dismantle surface-to-air missile systems deployed in the region.
Regional Forces and Ceasefire Efforts
Despite numerous ceasefire agreements brokered by regional leaders and the U.S. in 2022 and 2023, fighting persists. Congo, dissatisfied with the performance of regional peacekeepers from East Africa, ended their mandate in December 2023.
In May 2024, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) authorized a military mission in eastern Congo to combat instability. Unlike East African troops, the SADC forces, including soldiers from South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, have an offensive mandate to support Congo’s army against rebel groups.
South Africa has committed 2,900 troops to the mission, reporting casualties, including two soldiers killed and three injured in eastern Congo.